Ahead of the release of the Indonesian government’s official June consumer confidence report (expected to be released today), a survey conducted by the Danareksa Research Institute shows that Indonesian consumer confidence may have weakened 0.3 percent to 94.8 points in June 2014 amid concern about job availability and an expected slowdown in economic growth of Indonesia for the six months ahead. A reading below 100 points indicates pessimism, while a reading above 100 points indicates optimism.
The main reason for weaker consumer confidence in June was that respondents of the survey, involving 1,700 households across Indonesia, are concerned about a shortage of job availability and shortages of fertilizer in several regions. Respondents are also less likely to purchase durable goods in the months ahead as they are less optimistic about Indonesia’s economic prospects.
Economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. For full-year 2014, the economy is expected to grow about 5.4 percent, implying that the country’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011.
Inflation, which had accelerated sharply after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in mid-2013, has been easing since the start of 2014. Earlier this week, Statistics Indonesia announced that inflation had declined to 6.70 percent (yoy) in June 2014 (from 7.32 percent yoy in the previous month).
Indonesia's Quarterly GDP Growth 2009–2014 (annual % change):
| Year | Quarter I | Quarter II | Quarter III | Quarter IV |
| 2014 | 5.21 | |||
| 2013 | 6.03 | 5.89 | 5.62 | 5.78 |
| 2012 | 6.29 | 6.36 | 6.16 | 6.11 |
| 2011 | 6.45 | 6.52 | 6.49 | 6.50 |
| 2010 | 5.99 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 6.81 |
| 2009 | 4.60 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.58 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2006-2013:
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| GDP(in billion USD) | 285.9 | 364.6 | 432.1 | 510.2 | 539.4 | 706.6 | 846.8 | 878.0 |
| GDP (annual percent change) | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| GDP per Capita (in USD) | 1,643 | 1,923 | 2,244 | 2,345 | 3,010 | 3,540 | 3,592 | - |
Sources: World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Inflation in Indonesia:
| Month | Monthly Growth 2013 | Monthly Growth 2014 |
| January | 1.03% | 1.07% |
| February | 0.75% | 0.26% |
| March | 0.63% | 0.08% |
| April | -0.10% | -0.02% |
| May | -0.03% | 0.16% |
| June | 1.03% | 0.43% |
| July | 3.29% | |
| August | 1.12% | |
| September | -0.35% | |
| October | 0.09% | |
| November | 0.12% | |
| December | 0.55% | |
| Total | 8.38% | 1.99% |
| Inflation Rate June 2014 | Inflation Rate Calender 2014 | Inflation Rate year-on-year | |
| General | 0.43 | 1.99 | 6.70 |
| - Core | 0.25 | 1.88 | 4.81 |
| - Administered Price | 0.45 | 2.37 | 13.47 |
| - Volatile | 1.06 | 2.22 | 6.74 |
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Inflation (annual percent change) | 9.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia
http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/ConsumerConfidence
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