Preview IHSG 22 Juli 2014

Meski mayoritas bursa saham Asia memerah, IHSG terus mencetak rekor kenaikan kemarin. Jelang pengumuman hasil pemilihan presiden 22 Juli 2014, IHSG kembali menguat 0,79 persen ke level 5.127,12. Perkembangan dari krisis perang di Gaza dan insiden jatuhnya pesawat Malaysia masih mendominasi pergerakan pasar Asia. Sentimen serupa ternyata masih menjadi topik utama pergerakan bursa saham AS. Indeks saham AS melemah 0,28 persen ke level 17.051,73. Tekanan global akan sangsi terhadap Rusia makin meningkat. Pada saat yang sama hal ini akan mendorong ketidakpastian geopolitik dan risiko pemulihan ekonomi khususnya Eropa, mengingat Rusia merupakan pemasok sumber daya mineral yang sangat penting bagi kawasan Eropa. Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka variatif. Harga minyak Brent melemah ke level US$ 107,67/barel, dan emas turun ke level US$ 1.311,90/troy ounce.

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Sumber: http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2832

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Today's Headlines - 22 Juli 2014

Bank Mandiri to Finance Toll Roads Rp10.9 T (ID) BMRI has disbursed loans worth Rp10.94 trillion to support the construction of the toll road until June 2014. Of these, the largest financing done for the construction of four toll roads in Greater Jakarta area which amounted to Rp4.96 trillion. In addition to the four toll roads Jabodetabek, BMRI channeled to the construction of two toll road in West Java and Banten worth Rp1.48 trillion as well as a toll road in Central Java worth Rp1.84 trillion, two toll road in East Java worth Rp1.17 trillion and highways in Bali worth Rp445 billion. Chitose 1H2014 Result – Bottom line up 13.5% Chitose reported 1H2014 revenue of Rp142.9 bn up 4.9% y-y compare to the same period of 2013 at Rp136 bn. Gross profit however, posted higher 25.2% at Rp48 bn compare to Rp38 bn in the same period last year. Bottom line stood at Rp15.4 bn, up +13.5% compare to Rp13.6 bn on the same period 2013. Gross margin was better in the 1H2014 at 33.3% or up by 5.3 ppt compare to the same period last year, as well as operating margin which also saw an improvement to 15.5%, higher by 1.7ppt compare to the same period last year at 13.8%. An improvement is also shown by the net margin which higher by 0.8ppt at 10.8% compare to last year. Balance sheet remains in net cash position following an IPO on June 2014.  SOEs Construction booked new contract Rp25.6 trillion (ID) Four SoE Construction companies that listed on the Stock Exchange bagged new contracts worth a total of Rp25.6 trillion during the first half of 2014, or an average down 11.7% compared to the same period last year Rp29 trillion. ADHI bagged new contracts amounting to Rp3.5 trillion (-28.57% compared the first half of 2013 Rp4.5 trillion). Meanwhile, WIKA posted a new contract worth Rp6.7 trillion (-34.32% compared the first half of 2013 Rp 9 trillion). Additionally, PTPP posted a new contract Rp8.4 trillion (-13.09% of the first semester 2013 Rp9.5 trillion). Lastly, WSKT booked Rp7.08 trillion new contract value (+ 16.6% from the first half of 2013 6 trillion). The new contract comes from government, private and SOE projects.

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Market Outlook - The Show Continues

Indonesia still awaits the announcement of the formal count undertaken by the General Elections Committee, most likely on 22 July. Yet with several disputes reported in some regions, we believe that the decision will be referred to the Constitutional Court, with a final verdict expected to be made on 24 August. On the back of higher market liquidity and inflows, the market has been building on the expectation of a Jokowi victory. From our three themes related to this possible outcome, the IDR strengthening plays have lagged behind with only a 2% return (in 7 – 17 July), while the infrastructure plays have performed very well with a 11% return and the liquidity plays show a decent 7% return.

The count is progressing
With various quick counts showing conflicting results, all eyes are now fixed firmly on the real count. In our view, there are two critical events in the near term: first is the expected announcement by the General Elections Committee (KPU) on 22 July and the second is the final verdict by the Constitutional Court (MK) on 24 August in the event that KPU’s decision is appealed by either camp. The KPU has already started to tabulate the results at the district/city level before they are processed further at a higher level. However, with several disputes reported in some regions, we believe that the decision will be referred to the MK. Both candidates will have 3 days post the KPU announcement to submit their appeals, with final verdict from MK on 24 August. 

Addressing potential instability on palpable polarization
The presidential elections campaign has polarized public opinion, creating concerns over whether national stability could be safeguarded post the elections. In an attempt to clarify issue on the conflicting quick count results, the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion (Persepi) has reportedly summoned seven pollsters to demonstrate the validity of their research methods in undertaking their quick counts. The Indonesian Broadcast Commission (KPI) has also issued warning letters to all TV stations not to show any of the quick count results. Furthermore, it has also been reported that KPI warned both Metro TV (owned by Surya Paloh, Nasdem Chairman) and TV One (owned by Bakrie, Golkar Chairman) for not adhering to impartiality and non-partisan principles - as stated in the broadcast law.

Gaining more coalition support is equally important
Going forward, the new government will need to address several strategic issues, including making a tough decision on fuel price hikes given mounting pressure on next year’s budget. With the PDI-P coalition only controlling 37% of the legislature, the challenge is a tough one. While the permanent coalition declaration by 7 parties which support Prabowo-Hatta could pose challenges, several senior figures from parties within the coalition are reported to have given a signal for a potential switch to Jokowi’s coalition, if he indeed becomes the next president. While a stronger coalition might raise concerns of a transactional-nature in regard to cabinet formation, control over the legislature is even more vital for the new government to be effective, in our view

Brisker market activity; IDR strengthening plays are still lagging
With substantial improvements in liquidity and net inflows, we believe that the equity market has been building in the expectation of a Jokowi victory. In this scenario, we have been pitching three main themes: 1) a liquidity play on potentially stronger inflows and liquidity; 2) an IDR strengthening play for stocks such as the consumers and pharmaceuticals; and 3) an infrastructure play, through construction and cement. Of these three themes, the IDR strengthening plays have lagged behind with only a 2% return (in 7 – 17 July), while the infrastructure plays have performed well with a 11% return. The liquidity plays show a decent 7% return. We maintain our Overweight call on the Indonesian equity market with year-end index target of 5,248.
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Today's Headlines - 17 Juli 2014

Antam and Timah Reduce Investment (ID)  ANTM cut capital expenditure this year by 55% to Rp1.8 trillion from the original plan of Rp4 trillion, due to the current commodity price environment that has not been recovered. For 2015, the company set up capex of around Rp1.2-1.5 trillion. Moreover, TINS also cut this year capex by 30% to Rp840 billion from the original plan of Rp1.2 trillion. The company will prioritize capex to increase production and improve tin selling price. ISAT to Divest 7,000 Towers (BI)  To fix the financial structure of the company, Indosat plans to sell around 7,000 telecom towers. The plan would be implemented as soon as next year following ISAT’s completion of network modernization by the end of this year. Until now the company does not yet have an idea of the release mechanism of the tower, as well as the selling price of the tower. PGN Officially Enter Shale Gas Business in the United States (BI)  Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), through its subsidiary PT Saka Energi Indonesia, officially acquired 36% participating interest shale gas area faskem in the United States from Swift Energy Company valued at USD175 million or equivalent to Rp2 trillion. Transactions conducted on Tuesday consists of a cash payment worth USD125 million and the Swift’s portion for field development costs amounted to USD50 million. Through this acquisition, the company expects to receive many benefits including technology related to knowledge about shale gas development. SMGR Expect Lower Margin (BI) SMGR predicted net profit growth slowed slightly due to increased operating costs due to the increase of electricity tariffs and transportation costs. By the end of 1H14, the company has raised the ASP by 4-5%, but the increase was still less than the cost of production increased of 6-7%. Throughout 1H14, the company posted a net profit of approximately Rp2.7tn with revenues reaching Rp12.6tn. SMGR is targeting domestic sales in 2H14 to increase by 6%y-y. TBIG secures billion-dollar funding for XL towers buy (TJP) PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) prepares about $1.8bn to acquire number of towers owned by PT XL Axiata through open bidding. TBIG already pocketed $1bn in loans and will issue bonds and sustainable bonds worth $500mn and Rp 3.25tn, respectively. TBIG didn't elaborate on how many towers would be on offer or the valuation. XL itself will use the fund to pay off part of the firms $865mn debt used to acquire Axis. The possibility of canceling the bid remain if the expected price isn't in line with tower's profitability. http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2816

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Today's Headlines - 16 Juli 2014

Astra Agro’s CPO Production Grew 21% (ID) Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) managed to produce crude palm oil (CPO) as much as 852,942 tons during the first half of 2014. Production grew by 21.1% compared to the same period last year at 704,211 tons. AALI’s FFB production increased by 14.5% to 2.74 million tonnes during the first half of 2014, higher compared to the same period last year of 2.39 million tons. Thus the production yield increased to 11.01 tonnes per hectare (ha) compare to 10 tonnes per ha last year. Lower-than-expected Heavy Equipment Sales in 1H14 (BI) Heavy equipment sales in 1H14 reached 2,032 units with sales of 905 units in 1Q14 and 1,127 units in 2Q14. The sales realization in 1H14 is still far from the association target of 6,127 units for this year. Industry claimed the stalled construction projects during the first six months of this year coupled with the lack of improvement in commodity prices is the main cause for the low heavy equipment sales. Semen Indonesia Post Profit of Rp2.7 trillion (ID) Semen Indonesia (SMGR) expects its net profit for the first half of 2014 to reach Rp2.77 trillion, up 8% compared to the same period last year at Rp2.57 trillion. Meanwhile, revenue rose 12% to Rp12.79 trillion from Rp11.42 trillion. According to the company's, cement demand growth until the first half of this year was not as good as last year, growth until June 2014 only reached 4%, lower than the initial estimation of 6%. To anticipate the decline in cement demand, the company has taken a number of strategic steps such as cost efficiency, increase energy independence, as well as strengthening the distribution network. Waskita Start Pejagan-Pemalang Toll Road (BI) Pejagan-Pemalang toll road can finally start soon after the government approved Waskita acquisition over the project. With the approval, Waskita plan to do the groundbreaking soon by the end of July 2014. Previously, PT Pejagan Pemalang Toll Road, the subsidiary of PT MNC Infrastruktur is the concession owner of this toll road segment. This toll road will consist of four sections that will be done in stages with total construction value estimated at Rp2tn. Initially, Waskita will do the construction in section I (Pejagan-Brebes, 14.2km) and section II (Brebes Barat-Brebes Timur, 6km). Read More

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Preview IHSG 16 Juli 2014

IHSG menguat 0,99 persen ke level 5,070.82, bersama dengan bursa Asia lain yang juga menghijau. Dari kawasan regional, otoritas moneter Jepang-Bank of Japan (BOJ) memutuskan untuk tidak melakukan perubahan atas stimulus moneternya saat ini. BOJ akan tetap mempertahankan level base money sekitar 60-70 triliun yen, melalui pembelian surat berharga terutama obligasi pemerintah. BOJ sendiri memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2014 dari 1,1 persen menjadi 1,0 persen, serta pertumbuhan ditahun 2015 dan 2016 tetap sebesar 1,9 persen dan 2,1 persen. 

Data lainnya adalah arus investasi asing (FDI) ke China yang naik 2,2 persen disemester pertama 2014. Optimisme investor atas prospek ekonomi China mampu menarik investasi asing sebesar US$ 63,3 miliar sejak awal tahun 2014.

Indeks Dow Jones berakhir flat, dengan naik tipis 0,03 persen ke level 17.060,68. Rilis ekonomi AS terbaru menunjukkan penjualan retail bulan Juni naik 0,2 persen, setelah mampu tumbuh 0,5 persen dibulan Mei. Perkembangan lainnya adalah, dalam pertemuan dengan Senate Banking Committee, gubernur The Fed menyatakan bahwa stimulus moneter masih dibutuhkan guna mendongkrak ekonomi AS tumbuh lebih cepat, sehingga mampu menyerap lebih banyak tenaga kerja. Selain itu laju inflasi AS saat ini masih berada dibawah target bank sentral AS.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka variatif. Harga minyak Brent terkoreksi ke level US$ 105,84/barel, dan emas turun ke level US$ 1.296,50/troy ounce.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2805

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Today's Headlines - 14 Juli 2014

ISAT to issue $455mn bonds, refinance its debt next year (TJP)

PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) plans to issue rupiah denominated bonds worth $455mn in 2Q15 that would be used to refinance its $650mn debts due in 2020, while the new bonds will be mature in 10 years. Indosat targeting moderate revenue growth by 5-6% but predicted to not generate a net profit this year as they currently focusing on a major network-modernizing program said the president director. 

New Contract 1H14: PTPP Rp8.4tn, WSKT Rp7.0tn (ID)

PT Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk (PTPP) has won Rp8.4tn new contracts during 1H14. In the same period, PT Waskita Karya Persero Tbk (WSKT) bagged Rp7.08tn new contracts. Thus, PTPP plans to revise up its net profit target for this year to Rp600bn from the initial target of Rp520bn. 

Comment: Year-to-date, PTPP continue to be the best performer in new contracts achievement. Hence, during the dry construction market in 1H14, we believe PTPP will continue to deliver strong growth for this year. (Joko) 

TBIG Obtain Rp3.44 Trillion Loans (BI)

PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) obtain a syndicated loan from 17 banks worth US$299 million, equivalent to Rp3.44 trillion that will be used to refinance debt and fund the organic growth. The loan consists of USD loans worth US$215 million and Rupiah loans amounted Rp1 trillion. Meanwhile, total debt maturing this year reached Rp1.8 trillion. The company also plans to spend Rp3.5tn capital expenditure this year. 

XL could earn USD500 million (ID)

PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) has the opportunity to raise as much as USD500 million, or around Rp5.8 trillion in from telecommunications tower sales this year. The funds will be used to pay off the debt. XL has announced plans to sell tower since July 2, 2014. Currently XL has 8,000 towers. At least four companies eyeing a number of XL’s towers including TBIG, TOWR, SUPR, and IBST. http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2800

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Preview IHSG 14 Juli 2014

Bursa Asia termasuk IHSG kompak memerah akhir pekan lalu. Aksi ambil untung menekan IHSG turun 1,28 persen ke level 5,032.60. Sentimen negatif menggelayuti pasar datang dari kawasan Eropa, menyusul kejadian di industri keuangan Portugal. Pemicunya adalah penundaan pembayaran kewajiban surat utang jangka pendek oleh Espírito Santo International (ESI)- perusahaan induk bank terkemuka Portugal, Banco Espirito Santo (BES). Investor khawatir kejadian ini akan menular ke bisnis perusahaan anak lainnya, dan menekan industri perbankan.  Dalam perkembangan terakhir, pemerintah dan bank sentral Portugal memberikan jaminan bahwa kondisi perbankan masih baik terjaga, serta mengambil tindakan utama untuk mencegah risiko yang menular. Bursa AS berakhir hijau, pasca rilis keuangan sejumlah emiten. Investor bersemangat dan optimis kinerja keuangan kuartal kedua yang naik diatas ekspektasi pasar. Indeks Dow Jones menguat 0,17 persen ke level 16.943,81. Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menguat. Harga minyak Brent menguat ke level US$ 106.68/barel, dan emas naik ke level US$ 1.338,80/troy ounce.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2796

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Preview IHSG 10 Juli 2014

Ditengah pasar regional yang ditutup variatif, IHSG berhasil menembus rekor tertinggi barunya. IHSG naik 0,72 persen ke level 5.024,71. Rilis terkini ekonomi regional datang dari Jepang, yaitu surplus transaksi berjalan dibulan Mei. Ekspor Jepang tumbuh 2 persen YoY, dan impor menurun 0,4 persen YoY, sehingga membawa neraca transaksi berjalan mencetak surplus sebesar US$ 5,14 miliar. Data lainnya dari China adalah stabilnya laju inflasi Juni yang mencapai 2,3 persen, atau sedikit dibawah kenaikan bulan Mei sebesar 2,5 persen. Indeks Dow Jones kembali naik 0,47 persen ke level 16.985,61, seiring rilis resmi kebijakan The Fed Juni lalu, yang memangkas porsi pembelian surat berharga. Pelaku pasar menilai ekonomi AS makin membaik, dan berspekulasi akan dihentikannya QE oleh The Fed Oktober mendatang. Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menguat. Harga minyak Brent turun ke level US$ 108,05/barel, dan emas terkerek ke level US$ 1.328,40/troy ounce. http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2784

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Danareksa Institute: Indonesian Consumer Confidence Declined in June

Ahead of the release of the Indonesian government’s official June consumer confidence report (expected to be released today), a survey conducted by the Danareksa Research Institute shows that Indonesian consumer confidence may have weakened 0.3 percent to 94.8 points in June 2014 amid concern about job availability and an expected slowdown in economic growth of Indonesia for the six months ahead. A reading below 100 points indicates pessimism, while a reading above 100 points indicates optimism.

The main reason for weaker consumer confidence in June was that respondents of the survey, involving 1,700 households across Indonesia, are concerned about a shortage of job availability and shortages of fertilizer in several regions. Respondents are also less likely to purchase durable goods in the months ahead as they are less optimistic about Indonesia’s economic prospects.

Economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. For full-year 2014, the economy is expected to grow about 5.4 percent, implying that the country’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011.

Inflation, which had accelerated sharply after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in mid-2013, has been easing since the start of 2014. Earlier this week, Statistics Indonesia announced that inflation had declined to 6.70 percent (yoy) in June 2014 (from 7.32 percent yoy in the previous month).

Indonesia's Quarterly GDP Growth 2009–2014 (annual % change):

Year	Quarter I	Quarter II	Quarter III	Quarter IV
2014	5.21
2013	6.03	5.89	5.62	5.78
2012	6.29	6.36	6.16	6.11
2011	6.45	6.52	6.49	6.50
2010	5.99	6.29	5.81	6.81
2009	4.60	4.37	4.31	4.58

Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2006-2013:

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
GDP(in billion USD)	285.9	364.6	432.1	510.2	539.4	706.6	846.8	878.0
GDP (annual percent change)	5.5	6.3	6.1	4.6	6.1	6.5	6.2	5.8
GDP per Capita (in USD)	1,643	1,923	2,244	2,345	3,010	3,540	3,592	-

Sources: World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

Inflation in Indonesia:

Month	Monthly Growth           2013	Monthly Growth           2014
January	1.03%	1.07%
February	0.75%	0.26%
March	0.63%	0.08%
April	-0.10%	-0.02%
May	-0.03%	0.16%
June	1.03%	0.43%
July	3.29%
August	1.12%
September	-0.35%
October	0.09%
November	0.12%
December	0.55%
Total	8.38%	1.99%

 

	Inflation Rate       June 2014	Inflation Rate   Calender 2014	Inflation Rate   year-on-year
General	0.43	1.99	6.70
- Core	0.25	1.88	4.81
- Administered Price	0.45	2.37	13.47
- Volatile	1.06	2.22	6.74

 

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Inflation (annual percent change)	9.8	4.8	5.1	5.4	4.3	8.4

Source: Statistics Indonesia

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/ConsumerConfidence

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Danareksa: Pasar Berpotensi Diguyur Arus Modal Jika Jokowi Menang

Jakarta - Debat calon presiden dan calon wakil presiden Sabtu lalu semakin menghangatkan persaingan pemilihan presiden yang akan digelar 9 Juli nanti. Debat tersebut adalah kesempatan terbaik untuk menarik pemilih yang masih golput. Danareksa Sekuritas menilai pasangan Joko Widodo dan Jusuf Kalla lebih unggul. Helmy kristanto, dalam hasil riset Danareksa pagi ini, mengatakan Jokowi tampak lebih percaya diri dalam memaparkan visinya dan mempertahankan pendapatnya. "Jika Jokowi menang maka arus modal yang kuat kemungkinan besar akan terjadi minggu depan yang akan mendorong valuasi pasar dan mengapresiasi rupiah," kata Helmy. Oleh karena itu, Danareksa merekomendasikan saham BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, ASII dan TLKM. "Selama ini investor menarik uangnya sambil menunggu hasil pemilu. Jika Jokowi menang, maka menurut kami arus modal yang kuat akan terjadi," kata Helmy. Danareksa juga mengatakan menguatnya nilai tukar akan berdampak positif kepada sektor infrastruktur dan konstruksi. Sektor konstruksi bisa kembali ke valuasi puncak tahun lalu sebesar 21x PE. "Jika Jokowi menang maka IHSG bisa mencapai target 5.248 akhir tahun ini," kata Helmy. Sebaliknya, jika Jokowi kalah, maka pasar diperkirakan akan berekasi negatif. Meski demikian, pelaku pasar sudah memperhitungkan kemungkinan ini. Rupiah juga diperkirakan akan melemah jika Jokowi kalah, sehingga akan memiliki dampak negatif bagi saham-saham eksportir seperti GJTL, SMSM, dan saham komoditas seperti INCO, TINS, LSIP, dan ADRO. Beritasatu.Com

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Today's Headlines - 7 Juli 2014

Citilink Targets 15% Market Share (ID) Citilink Indonesia targets to get 15% of airline passenger market at the end of 2014. In 5M14, Citilink passengers have reached 3.6mn passengers. Until the end of this year, the company believes it can carry 8.2mn passengers driven by the addition in frequencies and new routes in Eastern Indonesia. The company estimates revenues in 1H14 to reach US$200mn with year-end target US$500mn.  Government Plan to Increase Coal Royalty by This Year (BI) The government signaled to raise royalty rates for open pit coal miners to 7%, 9%, and 13.5%. The 7% rate will be charged for coal under 5,000 kcal/kg, the rate of 9% for coal from 5,100 to 6,000 kcal/kg, and the 13.5% rates for coal above 6,100 kcal/kg. Furthermore, the government also plans to set a benchmark price of coal (HPB) at US$80/ton.  Comment: The government’s plan to increase royalty rate for IUP holders to between 7% and 13.5% will impact the most on the earnings for PTBA since all company’s license is currently under IUP. ITMG will have minimal impact since its coal mining concession under IUP accounted for about 12% of total coal production as of 2013. No impact for ADRO and HRUM as their coal mining concessions, which are currently operated, are under CCoWs.(Stefanus)  Marketing sales BSD reach Rp2.75 T (ID) Marketing sales of BSDE property business unit up until June 2014 was estimated at Rp2.75 trillion or about 46% of this year target of Rp6 trillion. Previously, Sinar Mas Land Ltd., through its subsidiary, PT Ekacentra Usahamaju and PT Paraga Artamida, buy as many as 874.8 million new shares, equivalent to 5% of BSDE paid up capital worth Rp1.59 trillion through non-preemptive right issue scheme that will be used for business expansion.  PTBA Eyeing US$600mn Power Plant (BI) PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk (PTBA) is eyeing the power plants potential in Myanmar and Vietnam worth a total of US$600mn. The capacity on each country is estimated at around 2x100MW. Currently, PTBA still in the process of feasibility study as well as looking for funding options either through loan or project financing.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2777

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Market Outlook: The Finale

The last debate last Saturday epitomized the intensified competition among the two candidates. With various latest pools continued to highlight smaller gap trends, both candidates presented their best effort during the last debate in a bid to lure more votes, especially from the undecided voters. To our surprises, Jokowi appears to considerably improve his confidence in enunciating his vision as well as when defense his statement. If Jokowi were to win, strong inflow will likely to happen next week, which would drive up market valuation and will be followed by IDR appreciation. Read More

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Preview IHSG 4 Juli 2014

Bursa Asia variatif, dengan IHSG melemah 0,40 persen ke level 4.888,74. Sentimen penggerak pasar muncul dari data serapan tenaga kerja AS yang melebihi ekspektasi pasar. Laporan ADP menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan-perusahaan AS menyerap sekitar 281 ribu tenaga kerja, atau diatas ekspektasi pasar sebanyak 200 ribu posisi. Indeks Dow Jones ditutup menguat 0,54 persen pada level tertinggi barunya yaitu 17.068,26. Penguatan ini didukung sentimen positif dari kondisi terkini lapangan kerja AS. Serapan tenaga kerja dalam ekonomi AS dibulan Juni meningkat tajam sebanyak 288 ribu, dan membawa laju pengangguran turun menjadi 6,1 persen, atau terendah sejak September 2008. Laporan lainnya menunjukkan kinerja sektor jasa yang makin positif. Services Purchasing Managers Index bulan Juni naik ke level 61,0 dari level 58,1 dibulan Mei. Ekspansi sektor jasa masih terus berlanjut. Dari kawasan Eropa, Bank sentral Eropa (ECB) tetap mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga rendah dilevel 0,15 persen, dan berencana untuk meluncurkan program pinjaman jangka panjang bagi perbankan. Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka naik. Harga minyak Brent naik ke level US$ 111,02/barel, dan emas sedikit terkerek ke level US$ 1.320,80/troy ounce.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2770

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Preview IHSG 2 Juli 2014

Bursa Asia cenderung variatif, dengan IHSG yang naik tipis 0,13 persen ke level 4.884,83. Sejumlah rilis penting ekonomi muncul kemarin, seperti PMI China, laju inflasi dan ekspor-impor Indonesia. Indikator official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) yang menggambarkan kondisi manufaktur China, naik dibulan Juni ke level 51 dari level 50,8 dibulan Mei. Hal senada juga diperlihatkan oleh HSBC PMI yang naik ke level 50,7 dibulan Juni. Dari dalam negeri, ekspor Indonesia pada bulan Mei mencapai US$ 14,83 miliar (naik 3,7 persen MoM), dan impor mencapai US$ 14,76 miliar (turun 9,23 persen MoM), sehingga membawa neraca perdagangan Mei mencetak surplus sebesar US$ 69,9 juta. Laju inflasi bulan Juni mencapai 0,43 persen MoM atau sebesar 6,7 persen dibandingkan bulan sama tahun lalu.

Bursa AS sendiri terus mencetak rekor kenaikan. Dow Jones kembali menanjak 0,77 persen ke level 16.956,07, atau mendekati level 17.000. Sentimen positif datang dari update terkini kondisi manufaktur AS. U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) bulan Juni meningkat ke level 57,3, atau tertinggi sejak Mei 2010. Level PMI diatas 50, mengindikasikan ekspansi sektor industri. Kenaikan PMI ini ditunjang naiknya order baru dan output produksi.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menghijau. Harga minyak Brent turun ke level US$ 112,11/barel, dan emas menguat ke level US$ 1.326,40/troy ounce.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2759

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Arwana Citramulia - The King of Tiles

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA) is a market leader in a niche sector of the ceramic tiles industry. With a focus on the middle-low segment, the company is benefiting from the growth in the GDP per capita for households which use its products. As a result, ARNA’s utilization is nearly maxed out every year. Thus, going forward, the company is not only focused on maintaining its strong balance sheet and impressive ROE, but also seeks to grow its capacity to meet higher expected demand in the future. Trading at 24x FY14 P/E, the stock is definitely not cheap at the moment. Hence, in our view, we see any correction in the share price as a possible opportunity to accumulate the stock, especially considering the post-election catalysts in regard to a higher state budget allocation on public housing, education, and healthcare.

Market leader in a niche sector of the ceramic tiles industry
In recent years, Arwana Citramulia (ARNA) has focused its business efforts on the middle-low market segment of the ceramic tiles industry which, overall, is estimated to account for 70% of the total tiles market. Under the ‘Arwana’ brand name - which contributes more than 90% of its revenues - the company has benefited from the country’s burgeoning middle class and increasing GDP per capita. As a result, ARNA has recorded very strong financial performance: earnings have grown by 39% CAGR over the past five years on the back of 19% CAGR growth in revenues. The company’s strategy of tapping into the suburban city areas - rather than the more developed city areas – allows the company to boost sales by extending its reach to more customers.

Currently, ARNA’s four operational plants are located in suburban city areas with two plants in West Java (Tangerang and Serang), one in East Java (Gresik), and one in South Sumatera (Palembang). With its latest plant located in Palembang, the company hopes to achieve greater efficiencies from lower piped gas prices in Sumatera in addition to lower logistical costs. On the operations side, the company’s utilization is nearly maxed out every year - an indication of the strong demand in the ceramic tile industry.

To distribute its products, ARNA sells them through its 65% owned subsidiary and sole distributor named PT Primagraha Keramindo. The remaining ownership of 35% is held by Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ), a building materials distributor and retailer that has an extensive distribution network. As a result, ARNA’s products were distributed through more than 92 sub-distributors and almost 35,000 retail outlets nationwide in 2013 – giving it extensive market reach.

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/CompanyResearch

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