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Thursday 28 August 2014

With Jokowi now officially elected as the next president of Indonesia, we are more bullish on the prospects for Indonesia’s infrastructure sector. Despite some stern challenges on the macroeconomic front, we are optimistic that the new government will have the resolve to raise subsidized fuel prices in 2015, saving the government money which can be spent in more productive ways. Hence, by pricing in expectations of greater infrastructure spending, we believe that 2015 will be a rosy year for Indonesian state-owned contractors as the direct proxy for accelerated infrastructure development. We roll over our base Target Prices to 2015 based on a target P/E multiple of 21x – at par with 1sd above the sector mean, which is justified during the sector up-cycle. We are OVERWEIGHT on the Indonesian construction sector with WIKA and PTPP as our Top Picks. 

Living on expectations
2015 promises to be an exciting year for the Indonesian construction sector, buoyed by hopes of greater infrastructure spending by the new government. In our view, president-elect Jokowi has a solid track record on project execution, and thus assuming the same approach to work, we believe that he will renew his focus on infrastructure development on a nationwide level. In relation to the stern challenge on the fiscal side related to booming fuel subsidies, we expect the new government to raise subsidized fuel prices by 30% in March 2015 at the soonest, saving the government at least Rp60tn. As a result, the new government would have more money to spend in more productive ways, thereby paving the way for the next infrastructure growth cycle.  

Bridging the gaps to 2015
Year-to-date, the state-owned contractors have still depended mostly on carry-over projects from 2013 to be booked as earnings since new contracts progress still lags behind management expectations. As a result, until year-end, we maintain our expectation of flattish new contracts in 2014 and mid-teens growth in earnings. Meanwhile, for 2015, we are more bullish and expect a substantial amount of new contracts after 2Q15 contingent on the government raising subsidized fuel prices. We believe that state-owned contractors - as long-term partners of the government - stand to benefit. Hence, we slightly raise our new contracts target for 2015 by 0.4-13.5%, thus resulting in y-y growth of 15.3-27.7%. As a result, we now expect a high double-digits growth in earnings in 2015 as we expect the industry to grow by 29.8% y-y (vs. 5.8% in 2014).

Blue sky scenario: shift to OVERWEIGHT
With the expectation of greater infrastructure spending, we believe that 2015 will be a rosy year for Indonesian state-owned contractors. Hence, we are bullish on all four state-owned contractors under our coverage, despite their considerable outperformance relative to the JCI in 2014. We roll over our base Target Prices to 2015 based on a target P/E multiple of 21x – at par with 1sd above the sector mean, which is justified during the sector up-cycle. All in all, we are OVERWEIGHT on the Indonesian construction sector with WIKA and PTPP as our Top Picks. In our view, share price volatility may continue up to 1Q15 until the new government produces the revised state budget of 2015.
Rilis indikator ekonomi AS yang positif memengaruhi pergerakan sebagian besar bursa Asia, termasuk IHSG yang berhasil menguat 0,36 persen ke level 5,165.25. Seperti diketahui bahwa, optimisme rumah tangga AS terhadap kondisi dan prospek ekonomi AS makin menguat, seperti terlihat pada naiknya indeks kepercayaan konsumen (IKK). Dibulan Agustus, IKK naik ke level 92,4 dari level 90,3, atau mencapai level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2007.

Pasca naik tajam sehari sebelumnya, bursa AS berakhir flat. Indeks saham Dow Jones sedikit naik 0,09 persen kelevel 17.122,01. Rilis kinerja keuangan emiten dan perkembangan terbaru dari Ukraina menjadi pemicu pergerakan pasar. Ditengah proses perdamaian antara Ukraina dan Rusia, ancaman ketegangan geopolitik kembali muncul setelah pihak Ukraina menuding adanya ekskalasi militer Rusia diperbatasan negaranya.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka melemah. Harga minyak Brent turun ke level US$ 102,62/barel, dan emas menguat ke level US$ 1.285,20/troy ounce.
Prediksi periode intraday: Sideways melemah
Level support-resistance IHSG: 5,134.1 - 5,187  

Rekomendasi Saham:

Ticker
Closed
Support 1
Support2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
UNVR
31950
31117
31533
32158
32367
HMSP
70500
70500
70500
70500
70500
ICBP
10500
10200
10350
10625
10750
TINS
1430
1403
1417
1447
1463
UNTR
22125
21742
21933
22483
22842
ISAT
3845
3792
3818
3858
3872


Monday 25 August 2014

SSIA Looks for USD126 Million Debt (BI)
Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA) is considering loans of about USD126 million or about Rp1.46 trillion from a number of local and foreign banks to help fund the rebuilding of the SSI office tower in Jakarta. The company said the facility will cover approximately 70% of the required funding, while the rest will be used from the company's internal cash. The total investment of SSI Tower is around USD180 million or about Rp2 tn. The marketing sales of the building will be conducted started from the fourth quarter 2014.

Telkom Expands Expansion in the Middle East (BI)
TLKM plans to expand its business to other countries in the middle east before the end of this year. The Company will realize the expansion plan in the fourth quarter 2014. The company said, the average investment value every time the company expands into other countries is around Rp1 tn. TLKM subsidiary which operates the overseas services is PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International (Telin). According to the company, the cooperation would be in the MVNO services (mobile virtual network operator) which is a form of cooperation between mobile telecom service providers in the form of voice and data services.

TINS Indicate Offshore Mining (BI)
PT Timah (TINS) directs the mining process to the offshore compare to the onshore because of cheaper cost. The company said the cost of onshore exploration considered to be more expensive due to the social costs such as reclamation and other costs. According to the company, the current estimate of offshore mining and the onshore mining is 75% versus 25%. This year the company budgeted capex of Rp1.3tn. As of July 2014, the only company absorbed 30% of the capex or around Rp390 billion.

Wednesday 20 August 2014

Expansion to ASEAN: SMGR Soon Completes Acquisition of Plant in Bangladesh (BI) 
Semen Indonesia prioritizes its acquisition of cement companies in Bangladesh to be completed soon in the near future. The company said, it is still possible to acquired more than one existing plant in Bangladesh. Bangladesh plant has a production capacity of 600,000 tons up to 1 million tons per year. In addition, the company also targets to finalize the process of expansion plans to Myanmar in the fourth quarter 2014, by working together to form a joint venture with a local partner. To develop this joint venture, SMGR requires funds of USD100million-USD200 million. The fund of USD50 million will be sourced internally, while the rest from the loan.
The management of BMRI emphasized earlier this year that it would place a high priority on its liquidity and assets quality over profitability amidst the higher interest rates environment. As a result, BMRI’s proportion of CASA has edged down to 64.3% as of June 2014 from 65.2% as of March 2014. Nonetheless, retail deposits dominated the bank’s deposits structure. This is significant since retail deposits should have a lower blended CoF than wholesale-based deposits. Besides having a well-diversified deposits structure, margins were relatively flat with the NIM at 5.7% in 2Q14 backed by the bank’s sizeable VR government bonds (Rp66.0 tn as of June 2014). Utilizing a DBV model with 15.7% cost of equity, 6.0% terminal growth rate and rolling over our valuation to 2015F, we arrive at our new Target Price of Rp12,400, implying PBV 2.5-2.2x for 2015-16F. BUY maintained.
Traffic was low in July 2014 due to the Lebaran holidays in the last week of the month. Overall, total traffic volume was down 7.1%m-m to 104mn vehicles in July, reflecting slower business activities in Greater Jakarta as the main traffic contributor. As a result, the daily average traffic volume was 10.1%m-m lower at 3.4mn vehicles in July. On a cumulative basis, however, the total traffic volume in 7M14 was still 2.7%y-y higher at 743mn vehicles with daily average traffic volume reaching 3.5mn vehicles, up 2.7%y-y thanks to the operation of some new sections in 2014 and the high growth of the out-of-Greater Jakarta sections. Going forward, we maintain our volume growth target of 6.0% this year, driven by stronger expected traffic volume in 2H14 from the operation of the new sections. BUY maintained at Rp7,600. 


Seperti yang diprediksi sebelumnya, IHSG bergerak positif bersama dengan naiknya bursa Asia lainnya. IHSG berakhir menguat 0,16 persen ke level 5.165,17. Meredanya sementara ketegangan Rusia- kraina, dan turunnya harga minyak dunia membantu indeks saham regional terkerek naik.

Bursa saham AS sendiri kembali ditutup naik tajam kemarin, dengan indeks Dow Jones yang menguat 0,48 persen ke level 16.919,59 dan Nasdaq Composite yang kembali menembus rekor tertinggi dalam 14 tahun dilevel 4.527,51. Kenaikan ini ditopang sentimen positif sejumlah rilis indikator ekonomi AS. Data the US Commerce Department menunjukkan bahwa izin mendirikan bangunan (IMB) dan pembangunan rumah baru AS meningkat dibulan Juli. IMB bulan Juli tumbuh 8,1 persen menjadi 1,05 juta unit, sementara pembangunan rumah baru naik 15,7 persen menjadi 1,09 juta unit. Kondisi ini menjadi sinyal positif sektor perumahan yang makin cerah. Disisi lain, laju inflasi AS dibulan yang sama juga cenderung stabil, yaitu mencapai 0,1 persen MoM, lebih rendah dari bulan Juni sebesar 0,3 persen. Turunnya komponen harga energi mendorong laju inflasi tahunan sedikit melambat menjadi 2,0 persen dari level 2,1 persen dibulan Juni.

Tuesday 19 August 2014

AALI CPO Production Grew 16%y-y in July 2014 (ID)
AALI CPO production grew 16.6%y-y to 973k tons in July 2014, while the average yield also improved to 12.6ton/ha. Year-to-date, Kalimantan area contributes up to 43% of company’s FFB production, while the rest comes from Sumatera and Sulawesi with contribution of 38.7% and 18.3%, respectively. 
AALI Performance Predicted to Drop (BI)
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) bright performance in the first half 2014 certainly will not be repeated in the second half of this year, due to a number of factors, particularly the price of crude palm oil. The company said the company's performance in the second half will not be as good as the first semester 2014, both from the aspect of price, as well as aspects of the supply. The threat of El Nino that is expected to occur in the first half, yet occurred till now. CPO prices in the second half will not be as high as previously estimated. AALI production is targeted to grow 10% this year compared with last year's achievement.
Despite a lack of fresh catalysts, Indonesia’s equity market closed up 1.9%w-w, or in line with the regional markets which booked positive weekly returns. Net outflows, however, continued into the second week of August, with the MTD outflows reaching IDR1.29t. On the economic front, we believe the resumption of exports by Freeport will help to ease concerns on the trade deficit. And with the formation of the new government in October coupled with the announcement of the new cabinet, we expect the stage to be set for further market gains. Maintain Overweight with 5,248 year-end index target.

Still on the path of improvement
All regional markets posted positive weekly returns, including the Indonesian market which rose 1.9% w-w. In our view, there are still a lack of fresh catalysts to bring about a significant re-rating of the market. The recent macro data announcements also highlight the concerns, as seen in the continued slowdown in GDP growth in 2Q14 and the high CAD of 4.3% of GDP. Nonetheless, we still believe that Indonesia is on the right trajectory and we anticipate the release of stronger macro data starting in October. With Freeport resuming exports this month, the October export data release should see some improvement, thus helping to alleviate concerns on a potentially worsening trade deficit. It has been reported that Freeport received a quota to export 756,300 tonnes of copper concentrate worth USD1.56b. Also in October, the new government will be installed and the president will announce his new cabinet. These catalysts should help bolster confidence, providing room for the rupiah to strengthen.

IHSG bergerak flat menguat 0,15 persen ke level 5.156,75, sementara bursa regional Asia lainnya ditutup variatif. Rilis informasi terkini sektor properti China menunjukkan rata-rata harga rumah baru kembali turun 0,9 persen MoM dibulan Juli, setelah dibulan Juni melemah 0,5 persen. Namun jika dibandingkan dengan pada tahun lalu, harga rumah di China masih lebih tinggi 2,5 persen. Kondisi ini merupakan penurunan bulanan berturut-turut dalam 3 bulan terakhir.

Disisi lain, bursa AS naik tajam menyusul sejumlah sentimen positif yang datang ke pasar. Indeks saham Dow Jones menguat 1,06 persen ke level 16.838,74, sementara Nasdaq Composite tembus ke level 4.508,31, atau tertinggi sejak Maret 2000. Ketegangan Rusia-Ukraina yang sementara ini mereda, serta turunnya harga minyak menjadi pemicu utama positifnya bursa. Dari sisi ekonomi AS, tingkat keyakinan para pengembang real estat terhadap kondisi ekonomi dan sektor perumahan makin meningkat. Hal ini tergambar pada naiknya home builder sentiment index dibulan Agustus ke level 55. Level indikator yang berada diatas 50, mengindikasikan optimisme para developer yang lebih kuat.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menguat. Harga minyak Brent melemah ke level US$ 101,61/barel, dan emas turun ke level US$ 1.299/troy ounce.
http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/BeritaRiset/NewsReader/2916

Monday 18 August 2014

As is customary before Independence Day, President SBY gave his State of the Nation address on the draft state budget (RAPBN) of 2015, which is his last. Amidst the current transition, the draft state budget does not provide clarity on key developments next year, especially in the absence of fuel subsidy cuts, a crucial issue given that ballooning fuel subsidies have weighed on the budget and dampened economic growth. All in all, we see that the draft state budget of 2015 only projects a straight line trajectory from the revised state budget of 2014, only taking into account basic needs and public services. Going forward, we expect the next government to launch several initiatives on the fiscal side to incorporate new programs into the revised state budget in January 2015 at the soonest. As such, the expected reforms of the next government to reduce fuel subsidies and undertake more value-added expenditure may serve as important catalysts to boost economic growth, which would in turn, bolster the equity market. We retain our Overweight stance with year-end index target of 5,248. 
Mixed signs 

The 2015 state budget is based on the assumption of GDP growth of 5.6% for 2015 and without fuel price hikes, inflation is expected to fall further to 4.4%. However, the rupiah is expected to only stabilize at its current level of Rp11,900/USD despite stronger economic growth and slower inflation, reflecting the likelihood that the Fed normalizes its monetary policy by raising interest rates in 2015. In our view, it appears that the state budget reflects a ‘business as usual’ stance, giving the next government some room to incorporate its specific programs and initiatives that it deems important in the state budget. 

Underpinned by the festive season at the end of last month, retailers recorded strong performance in July 2014, with the average gross sales growth of the three retailers under our coverage reaching 20.4% y-y. SSG also impressed - the average year-to-date SSG reached 11.9% in July. Looking ahead, we believe the outlook for the sector remains sound, given: 1) buoyant consumer confidence – a positive sign for future demand, 2) the fact that all the retailers under our coverage have strong footholds in their respective segments, and 3) expectations of stable margins in the coming years. On the flip side, risk factors worth watching are a possible further slowdown in the economy and continued rupiah depreciation. We roll over our valuation to 2015, arriving at a new Target Price of Rp1,040 for ACES, Rp6,250 for MAPI, and Rp1,140 for RALS. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. 

Reaping the rewards from the festive season
The retailers under our coverage maintained strong topline growth of 20.4% y-y on average up to July 2014 (21.8% for ACES, 23.6% for MAPI, and 15.7% for RALS). The numbers for July itself were very strong from all the retailers under our coverage, backed by the festive season (Ramadan and Idul Fitri). Idul Fitri is always a boon for RALS and the company’s sales rocketed 161.7% to Rp1,956 bn in July from Rp747 bn in June. Likewise, ACES and MAPI also booked very strong m-m sales growth in July - reaching 20.7% and 25.1% respectively - or higher than the average seasonality in the last 3 years. Going forward, we remain optimistic that the retailers can maintain their sound performance in the remaining months of the year. We forecast full year topline growth of 14.2% on average. 

Depok – Antasari Toll Road: Three SOE’s Contractors Wins the Project (BI)
Three state-owned enterprises which also minority shareholders in PT Cintra Waspphutowa were appointed as the winning bidder in Depok - Antasari highway project worth Rp 3 trillion. The three state companies are Waskita, PP, and Hutama Karya. The joint operation of three state enterprises will start the clearing works following land released in late August 2014, while the process of loan disbursement amounting to Rp2.1 trillion from BRI will come out after the progress of land acquisition reaches 90%. 
MAPI Issued Rp350 billion Bonds (BI)
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) is offering bonds worth Rp350 billion. The Company has made bookbuilding since the beginning of last week to this week. Bond issuance is divided into two series, the A series with 10.2% -10.95% coupon with a tenor of three years and B series with an indicative coupon of 10.6% -11.35% with a tenor of five years. The net proceeds will be used for refinancing or working capital.
Ministry of Public Works Has Realized Rp31.7tn from the Budget (ID)
The realization from the Ministry of Public Works budget already reached 42%, or about Rp31.75tn of the total budget of Rp75.46tn in 2014. Meanwhile, in the 2015 draft state budget, the Ministry will be allocated Rp74.2tn of the total budget requirement of Rp123tn. From the prioritized infrastructure programs, the Ministry needs at least Rp86.3tn at the baseline to fulfill MDG’s target. 
SMGR Targeting Higher Volume in 2nd Half (BI)
Semen Indonesia (SMGR) targeting sales can grow up to 120% in the second half of this year compared with the first half. SMGR optimistic the target could be achieved because of the company's production line is ready to meet the national cement demand. In the second half of this year, the company targets sales to reach 15.23 million tonnes to 16.6 million tonnes compared to 13.87 million tonnes in the first half of this year. This year sale is targeted to reach 29.1 million tonnes - 30.5 million tonnes. More
Bursa Asia menguat terkecuali IHSG yang turun 0,13 persen kelevel 5,148.96. Penguatan ini menyusul naiknya bursa AS sehari sebelumnya. Dari kawasan Timur Tengah, Israel dan Palestina sepakat memperpanjang gencatan senjata selama 5 hari kedepan.

Sementara itu bursa Dow Jones memerah akhir pekan lalu. Sentimen negatif dari ketegangan Rusia dan Ukraina, kembali menekan pasar. Indeks Dow Jones turun 0,30 persen ke level 16.662,91. Informasi ekonomi AS terkini antara lain adalah naiknya produsen price index (PPI) dibulan Juli sebesar 0,1 persen, setelah dibulan sebelumnya naik 0,4 persen. Stabilnya level harga ditingkat produsen terjadi seiring turunnya harga energi.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka variatif. Harga minyak Brent melemah ke level US$ 102,90/barel, dan emas turun ke level US$ 1.300,30/troy ounce.

Thursday 14 August 2014

Alam Sutera Launch Indigo Tower (ID)
ASRI aggressively build apartments in the Kota Ayodhya superblock, Tangerang, Banten, by launching the fourth apartment tower named Indigo. Previously, the three towers have been sold and received a positive response from the market. The price for this fourth tower increased by 11.5% from the initial price of Rp238 million to Rp265 million per unit. Indigo tower will consist of 828 units and ready to be launched into the market on August 16, 2014.
Comment: As of June 2014, ASRI has recorded marketing saIes of Rp2.6 T. This achievement has reached 52.4% and 57.0% of company’s and our total marketing sales target for FY14. We expect Rp4.56 T of marketing sales in 2014, coming from the Serpong project (47%), the Pasar Kemis project (31%), and the office tower project (23%). Marketing sales from Kota Ayodhya is included in the Serpong project. (Anindya)
ASEAN Expansion, Kalbe Prepare Rp580 Billion (ID) 
Kalbe Farma (KLBF) prepares up to USD50 million or about Rp580 billion to finance expansion into ASEAN in three years. The expansion includes product marketing, appointment of a distribution company, and the establishment of a joint venture (JV). Several target countries of export expansion include the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Kalbe also open up opportunities to prioritize the acquisition of the company, particularly for company producing consumer health products. Related to the news about the possibility of buying PT Phapros shares, the company insists that they do not plan on buying shares of PT Phapros.
Motorcycles: Increased Exports Next Year (BI)
Export of Indonesian motorcycle in 2014 predicted will flat. The small size of the export motorcycle market in the country will encourage businesses to increase exports next year. AISI said that, from year to year exports motorcycles dwell only within the range of 1% of the total national distribution. But in 2015, AISI predicts this figure will climb supported by several car manufacturers plan to expand the export market. The largest export markets for Indonesian motorcycle are in Philippines and Thailand.
Pejagan-Pemalang Toll Road Project Will be Accelerated (BI)
The Government encourages the acceleration of Pejagan-Pemalang toll road project as part of the Trans-Java toll network. For the initial stage of construction, WSKT will carry out the construction of the two sections, namely the 14km section 1 Pejagan-West Brebes and the 6km section 2 West Brebes-East Brebes. These two sections is expected to be in operation by next year. 
Comment: Previously, WSKT through its subsidiary PT Waskita Toll Road took over PT Pejagan Pemalang Toll Road (PPTR) from MNC Group to complete the halted construction progress. We believe if there is no delay during the construction stage, WSKT will enjoy not only from the value from the construction but also the buyback option from MNC Group on its third year. (Joko)
Property Price Rise Steepest in East Indonesia (TJP)
The latest survey by Bank Indonesia has found property prices in major cities in eastern Indonesia have shown an upward trajectory because of the strongest purchasing power of its citizens and a rise in housing investment. In the April to June period the index of residential property prices in Manado, North Sulawesi, saw the biggest q-q increase of 9.5 percent, followed by Makasar, South Sulawesi, with a rise of 6.5 percent. Both cities property price increase was way above the overall average of Indonesian cities. BI’s index of residential property prices, which includes 16 major cities in Indonesia, only rose 1.7 percent q-q in the same period. BI’s report also warned about the potential acceleration of prices in other cities in the upcoming months.
ITMG: 1H14 Results - Cost efficiency improved margin
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) reported net profit of US$148mn in 1H14 (+40% yoy, -46% qoq). While revenue was within our expectation, the net profit was above our expectation as it constituted of 63% of our full year net profit of US$236mn in 2014. This was due to gain on derivative transaction. Higher net profit was mainly due to a) lower COGS, b) lower operating expenses and c) higher gains on derivative transactions amounting of U$45mn in 1H14 vs. only US$5mn during the same period last year. On the quarterly basis, net profit went down by 46% qoq on lower coal sales volume by 6% qoq to 6.7mn tons in 2Q14. We maintain HOLD recommendation as there is now only limited upside to our target price of Rp27,800 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 12.4%) and reflecting a mine life based on reserves. Our target price also implies 12.9x 2015F PE.
Bursa regional menguat diperdagangan kemarin, termasuk IHSG. IHSG naik 0,70 persen ke level 5.168,27. Sejumlah berita ekonomi positif menjadi sentimen penggerak pasar. Rilis GDP Jepang menunjukkan ekonomi Jepang berkontraksi pada triwulan kedua 2014. GDP Q2 2014 turun sebesar 6,8 persen, setelah mampu tumbuh 6,7 persen di Q1 2014. Perkembangan ini sebenarnya sesuai dengan ekspektasi pelaku pasar, menyusul keputusan pemerintah Jepang untuk menaikkan pajak konsumsi dari 5 persen menjadi 8 persen dibulan April lalu. Dari China, output industri dibulan Juli tumbuh 9 persen, setelah mampu tumbuh 9,2 persen dibulan Juni. Penjualan retail pun ikut meningkat. Pada bulan Juli, pertumbuhan penjualan retail mencapai 12,2 persen, setelah naik 12,4 persen dibulan Juni.

Indeks saham Dow Jones sendiri kembali naik 0,55 persen ke level 16.651,80, dengan topangan kenaikan saham-saham teknologi dan kesehatan. Informasi dari sektor properti AS memperlihatkan bahwa volume aplikasi KPR minggu lalu turun 2,7 persen dari minggu sebelumnya.

Pagi ini mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menguat. Rilis ekonomi terkini dari Jepang adalah indikator Japan's core machinery orders yang naik 8,8 persen MoM, namun masih berkontraksi 3 persen dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya. Harga minyak Brent melemah ke level US$ 103,99/barel, dan emas turun ke level US$ 1.312,70/troy ounce.

Pehatikan saham berikut:



http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/Beri...ewsReader/2896